Click Here to Go to the Ashbrook Center's Homepage

Subscribe to Our Email Update
 
SEARCH
 

Home



Support the Ashbrook Center




No Left Turns:
The Ashbrook
Center Blog




  Ashbrook
Podcasts


Podcast Index

What's a Podcast?

Peter Schramm's "You Americans"

Ashbrook Events

Teaching American History




Ashbrook Scholar Program



Social Studies
Teacher Seminars






Congressional Academy for American History and Civics





Presidential Academy for American History and Civics





Master of American History and Government





American Speeches, Letters, and Documents
On-Line Library






Constitutional
Convention


Federalist-
Antifederalist
Debate


Ratification of
the Constitution


Founding
Political Parties




Ashbrook 
Columnists 

Robert Alt

Andrew E. Busch

John C. Eastman

Christopher Flannery

David Forte

Patrick J. Garrity

Steven Hayward

Joseph Knippenberg

Terrence O. Moore

Lucas Morel

Mackubin T. Owens

Peter W. Schramm

David Tucker

John Zvesper




Calendar of Events



Subscribe to Our
E-Mail Update





Book of the Week:
Contested Will: Who Wrote Shakespeare?
by James Shapiro




Book of the Week Archive



Vindicating The
Founders.com




Classics of Strategy and Diplomacy



Suggested Articles



Who Was
John Ashbrook?




Other Sites of Interest

Johnny Gore and Sarah Lieberman:
What the Republican Ticket Can Learn From 2000

Editorial
October 2008

by: Andrew E. Busch


As the final weekend of the 2008 campaign approaches, it is worth taking to heart Joe Lieberman’s recent recollection that he and Al Gore were behind with a week to go in 2000. The weekend before election day, Karl Rove predicted a 6-7 percent popular vote plurality and about 320 electoral votes for Bush—a prediction brought to mind by David Axelrod’s public pronouncement that Obama now has a clear path to victory. When all the votes were counted—some of them three or four times—Gore led the nationally-aggregated popular vote by one half of one percentage point. There are a number of lessons John McCain and Sarah Palin can learn from Gore’s fast close.

  1. Don’t let up. In the last few days of the 2000 campaign, Gore took up a frenetic pace. He was still campaigning on Election Day itself, traveling and calling into radio shows. This energy not only reaped electoral benefits in its own right, but it also conveyed the notion that Gore was still convinced he could win, an important morale boost to his supporters. Bush, on the other hand, rested on his lead.

  2. Be prepared to take quick and decisive advantage of whatever scraps fall from the adversary’s table. In 2000, Gore took control of the message in the final days, pouncing when Bush made a comment that inadvertently left the impression that he did not know that Social Security is a federal program and when news reports revealed that Bush had been convicted of a DUI offense two decades earlier. (The latter tidbit may not have come to the fore spontaneously.) The Obama campaign will be well-advised to lock up Joe Biden at an undisclosed secure location until November 5, but Obama himself (or a host of congressional Democrats) may provide the scraps. There are now almost daily revelations about Obama’s past and present, including the Khalidi tape and the campaign’s prepaid credit card scam. It will be up to Republicans to turn them into a banquet quickly, and in a way that coheres with McCain’s overall message.

  3. Go for the jugular. Aware of the tightening race, Gore’s rhetoric reached new levels of intensity. Speaking in a black church, Gore suggested that Bush wanted to return America to the days before the 14th amendment. While over-the-top denunciation may not work for McCain against Obama, he or his surrogates (including Palin) have to be ready to press their case with a new degree of vigor.

  4. Remember that Gore’s late surge did not show up as a tie or a small Gore lead in the polls until Election Day or the day before. According to the most recent polls, McCain has already closed the gap considerably, but it might be worthwhile to remind voters—particularly McCain supporters—of this lesson from 2000.

  5. Do not concede early. After falling behind by a large margin in the vote count in pivotal Florida, Gore called Bush to concede the race and offer him congratulations. Once it was clear that Florida could not be declared after all, Gore called Bush again and un-conceded. Yet his backtrack marked him in the minds of millions of Americans as a sore loser who would throw a tantrum if things did not go his way, and Gore never succeeded in getting the public behind his challenges politically. McCain, who is often quite magnanimous to his partisan opponents (to the degree of irritating his partisan friends.) should be on alert not to let the magnanimity slip into a too-early concession that may box him in if things change later in the evening.

There are, of course, also some lessons that can be learned from Bush’s close. The most important may be to keep up the drive for turnout even if early returns are not good. First, you might win despite a slow start. Second, though it has no constitutional standing, the nationally-aggregated popular vote has a moral standing. Bush has been hobbled for most of his two terms by the bitterness that attended the circumstances of his victory. If he wins and wants to be able to govern, McCain (and the country) has to hope that his vote in California is big enough that he will not win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

Andrew E. Busch is a Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and an Adjunct Fellow of the Ashbrook Center.



 


Printer-Friendly Version

Upcoming Events

Robert Alt on the Constitution
Thursday, Sept. 16

Jonah Goldberg on Liberalism
Wednesday, Sept. 29

William Voegeli on Downsizing Government
Friday, October 8

Harry V. Jaffa on the Philosopher and the Statesman
Thursday, October 14

Matthew Spalding on Realigning American Politics
Tuesday, October 26


Recent Publications


In the War on Terror, Trust the American Citizen by David Tucker

Among Marines by Peter W. Schramm

The McCrystal Affair and U.S. Civil-Military Relations by Mackubin T. Owens

Another Soldier-Scholar Enters the Fray: Gen. Mattis Moves to USCENTCOM by Mackubin T. Owens

Against Transforming America by Peter W. Schramm

Finding Ever More to Say on Lincoln by Michael Burlingame

Keeping Health Care Front and Center by Andrew E. Busch

Keep the Gulf Oil Rig Disaster in Context by Mackubin T. Owens

Nuclear Reprocessing by Mackubin T. Owens

War and Memory by Mackubin T. Owens

The Day After by Andrew E. Busch

Israel: A Revolutionary Miracle in Palestine by Mackubin T. Owens

Tom Hanks and The Pacific by Mackubin T. Owens

Our Lyceum by Peter W. Schramm

Delegitimizing the Roberts Court by David Marion


Audio Archive


Mitt Romney (2010)

Peter W. Schramm, John Moser on Calvin Coolidge (2010)

Sidney Milkis on Theodore Roosevelt (2010)

Michael Burlingame on Abraham Lincoln (2010)

John Kasich on the Future of Ohio (2009)

Steven Hayward on Ronald Reagan (2009)

Conference on the Presidency and the Courts featuring President George W. Bush (2008)

Jeb Bush on America’s Promise (2008)

Harry V. Jaffa on the Lincoln-Douglas Debates (2007)

Glenn Beck on Militant Islam (2006)

Lamar Alexander on Education (2006)

Karl Rove on Conservatism (2005)

James McPherson on the Battle of Antietam (2005)

David Hackett Fischer on Liberty and Freedom (2004)

William Bennett on the Politics of War (2004)

Edwin Meese on Homeland Security (2003)

Barbara Bush on CSPAN (2003)

Victor Davis Hanson on Terrorism (2003)

Benjamin Netanyahu on Attaining Peace (2002)

Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court (1999)

Margaret Thatcher on Ronald Reagan and Freedom (1993)

Lynne V. Cheney on Academic Freedom (1992)

Dick Cheney on American Foreign Policy (1991)

Ronald Reagan on John Ashbrook (1983)

  Real Logo
Visit our archive of over 200 other Ashbrook speeches at
audio.ashbrook.org or subscribe to our
Events Podcast.








ASHBROOK SCHOLAR PROGRAM | MASTER OF AMERICAN HISTORY AND GOVERNMENT |
PUBLICATIONS | EVENTS | PODCASTS | NO LEFT TURNS BLOG | AUDIO ARCHIVE | DONATE | ABOUT US

 

Ashbrook Scholar Program:  Home | Apply Online | Request More Information | Course of Study | Faculty | Speakers |
Why Study History or Political Science? | Internship Opportunities | Student Publications | Financial Assistance | FAQ | Contact Us

Master of American History and Government:  Home | About | Admission | Schedule of Courses | Course Registration | Tuition | Faculty | Request More Information

TeachingAmericanHistory.org:  Home | Saturday Seminars | Summer Institutes | Partner on a Teaching American History Grant | Historical Documents Library | Audio Lectures and Discussions | Constitutional Convention | Ratification of the Constitution

Presidential Academy for American History and Civics:  Home | About the Program | Documents and Texts | Faculty | Itinerary | Application

Congressional Academy for American History and Civics:  Home | About the Program | Documents and Texts | Faculty | Itinerary | Application

Podcasts:  Home | What's a Podcast? | Subscribe

No Left Turns Blog  Home | Archive | Postings by Author | Comments by Our Readers | What's in a Name? | RSS Site Feed

Publications:  Home | Editorials | On Principle | Right from the Center | Dialogues | Books | Monographs |
Ashbrook Statesmanship Theses | Res Publica | Publication Request Form | Publications by Subject

Events:  Home | John M. Ashbrook Memorial Dinner | Major Issues Lecture Series | Colloquium |
Van Meter Scholarship Luncheon | Conferences and Special Events | Calendar of Events | On-Line Speeches (RealAudio)

About Us:  Home | Board of Advisors | Staff | Who Was John M. Ashbrook | Support the Ashbrook Center |
Map and Directions

 

Verizon Foundation
Support for ashbrook.org is provided by the Verizon Foundation.


John M. Ashbrook Center for Public Affairs
Ashland University
401 College Avenue | Ashland, Ohio 44805
(419) 289-5411  |   (877) 289-5411 (Toll Free)